Movement of betting lines. Monitoring bookmaker lines

2024 Author: Leah Sherlock | [email protected]. Last modified: 2023-12-17 05:25

To analyze the movement of betting lines, it is necessary to monitor odds. This concept reflects the reaction of a particular sporting event to the demand from cappers. Experienced players know how to track quotes movements. They look for bets with the highest odds. In this article, we will talk about such a gaming strategy as the “movement of betting lines”, which are monitored by cappers. So let's get started.

Definition

Usually, bookmakers place odds on a particular event based on two factors: either on the basis of their own statistical information and analytics, or on the basis of a ready-made line formed by an analytical agency. For these purposes, some bookmakers have their own analytical departments. There are also companies that take as a basis the lines of their colleagues. And they don't really care if it's some sort of plagiarism.

Line is a group of interconnected markets and odds placed on them. For example, 1X2 is a line that has three shoulders: a victory for the 1st team, a draw andvictory 2nd. The line can also consist of handicaps (F1(-2), F1(-1), F1(+1), etc.) and totals (Tb(0), Tb(1) and others). There are many other types of bets.

It should be understood that the change in the lines of bookmakers is associated with the interaction of several markets. For example, when updating the odds of the 1X2 market, the odds for handicaps and outcomes will be affected. But this may not have any impact on markets related to corners, cards and totals (soccer).

Over time, the odds offered by offices on certain markets can change. This is the movement of betting lines. Monitoring the coefficients will certainly help to understand both the prerequisites and the consequences of this process. A professional capper needs to understand this. Otherwise, he has very little chance of drawing the right conclusions about the event and increasing his profitability.

When do the lines move?

Before answering this question, you need to understand what a line load is. This term is understood as the total amount of money that is placed on all shoulders within one line. Loading one line outcome is a special case. For example, the total amount of bets on the victory of the 1st team in the 1X2 line. That is, when the amount of money supply for this outcome significantly prevails, then they say that the line is loaded.

What's wrong with leverage?

For the capper himself - nothing. He made a bet and is waiting for the outcome. But for the bookmaker it is importantnot the total amount of money bet, but their even distribution over the shoulders. After all, the main earnings of the office are included in the margin. One-time losses of players are not so important. So, when one of the shoulders is overloaded, and the rest are not, the bookmaker faces the threat of losses. If the loaded market wins, then the office will suffer losses on numerous payments. This is where the betting lines move. That is, if the victory of the 1st team in the 1X2 line is loaded, then X and 2 begin to move up. This will cause an increase in the number of bets on these markets and balance all three levers.

Causes of occurrence

We have already found out that the change in the lines of bookmakers is directly related to overload. The latter arises due to two types of player activity: unintentional and intentional.

Unintentional overload

Appears when a favorite (very popular among players) market is loaded. For example, it can be one of the main outcomes of 1X2 or total goals. Most often, amateur players bet on the most understandable and simple market. For the same victory of any of the teams. This allows bookmakers to underestimate the odds, thereby getting a large margin due to the failure of one of the favorite markets. For example, when two tennis players are playing, the odds for the strongest are always loaded more. And in the same football, there are also draws that allow bookmakers to more than recoup the load of bets on the favorite. Thus, when players bet too much on one shoulder, there is a movement of bettinglines. As a result, the loaded coefficient decreases, while the underloaded coefficient increases.

Deliberate factors

Intentional factors include a one-time significant load on any of the line's shoulders. Most often, this happens in contractual games. This is a very deep and complex issue that requires a separate study. But within this topic, it is worth noting that for all gaming companies such bets are suspicious and sometimes become the subject of separate proceedings. In this case, the load causes not only an abrupt movement of betting lines, but can also cause a complete closure of the market. In general, any non-standard behavior of players can result in unforeseen expenses for bookmakers that they do not want to bear.

Practical application

Let's find out how betting line movement analysis can help a capper. And for easier understanding, we will give specific practical examples.

By choosing a rate and a certain market, we can trace the dynamics of changes over the past couple of days. After that, you can make a conclusion about the appropriateness of the bet. For example, if the odds on the selected market have changed a lot in the last 48 hours, then most likely one of its shoulders has been overloaded. How this happens, we have described above. If the coefficient has fallen sharply, then either a lot of bets were made on this market, or a few, but significant in amount. In this case, the analysis should be based on the levelcredibility of the gaming event. When it comes to some insignificant match, the nature of this load is questionable. There may be collusion between teams (players). If the event is significant, then such a movement of the odds indicates the desire of the gaming company to earn or balance the gross volume of bets on the shoulders of the market.

Another example of using bookmaker line analysis is to prepare for arbitrage situations. A rapidly growing odds on one of the shoulders in a particular gaming company, with an unchanged character on others, is a clear signal that a surebet is about to appear. If you respond in a timely manner, then this information can be converted into money.

Another area of application of the analysis of the line of bookmakers is protection against traps of offices that use artificial surebets to catch professional cappers in arbitrage. While these risks are small, they do exist. Therefore, if there is an abrupt growth of the odds in the line of any office (while the odds of other bookmakers do not change) without any logical reasons, then it is better to refrain from placing a bet.